No aspect of national sovereignty or
international law is more controversial than the question of the legitimacy of
preemptive war for self-defense. When the Bush administration declared
preemption an essential pillar of its 2002 National Security Strategy, it
provoked legal and diplomatic firestorms that the invasion and occupation of
Iraq have only intensified.
But preemption's future as a viable
policy option deserves fresh scrutiny, because the threat of unconventional
attack requires the threat of unconventional preemption. Traditional military
practice constrains both the policy and the legal flexibility to preempt
effectively. But unconventional opportunities that increasingly offer
policymakers nonlethal, minimally destructive choices to act preemptively are
emerging. What the United States needs now is a new doctrine that strikes the
best national security balance between the urgent need to preempt hostile acts
and the earnest desire to minimize harm. Call it "soft preemption."
For international lawyers and
judge advocates general weaned on the Treaty of Westphalia, the U.N.
charter and the Geneva Conventions, these next-generation preemption
opportunities may look like legal loopholes. In reality, however, they may
prove to be a particularly appealing way of adhering to such legally desirable
"just war" goals as "proportionality" -- the ethical criterion
emphasizing restraint and precision in the use of force.
Suppose, for example, that in the wake of
a new wave of suicide bombings in Baghdad, Paris or London, Middle East
satellite channels broadcast sermons by imams that praised the attackers as
"martyrs" and encouraged further violence. American authorities
determine that such broadcasts qualify as "incitement." "Soft
preemption" asserts that disrupting or distorting the news channels'
satellite transponder signals for 48 or 72 hours could blunt the immediacy of
that incitement. The technologies to do this exist. Nonviolent, non-destructive
technical interference could arguably save many lives.
Responsible policymakers may disagree
over whether such tactics are better than other alternatives, or set
destructive precedents for other nations to follow. But it would be
irresponsible to deny the value of the option. There needs to be meaningful
choices between impotence and violence. Much as the "soft power" of
cultural exchange and economic trade complements military "hard
power" on the global stage, soft preemption -- as public policy, not just
covert action -- is a necessary security counterpart to hard preemption.
Hard preemption -- military strikes -- is
almost always condemned as "illegal" and an "overreaction"
by the world's nations. Think of Israel's 1981 bombing of Iraq's Osirak nuclear
reactor. Similarly, the hard option was seriously considered -- and dismissed
-- in the Clinton administration's plans to bomb North Korean nuclear
facilities in June 1994. The laws, rules and customs around hard preemption are
etched in shades of gray.
In stark contrast to the destructive
intent of hard preemption, soft preemption seeks to undermine and compromise an
enemy's ability to attack without killing people or blowing up property.
Strategically toughening visa and immigration requirements are obvious soft
preemption tactics. So are recent policies by European authorities -- notably
in France and England -- to deport noncitizens who fund, organize and incite
extremist violence.
As the experience of 9/11 and the recent
London bombings affirms, coordinating soft preemption strategies would require
levels of interagency information-sharing and collaboration that would
effectively erase historic organizational distinctions between law enforcement
and military defense worldwide. That's particularly true for disrupting the
global financial networks that fund terrorism or nuclear proliferation. In the
United States, presidential directives empower the secretary of state and the
Treasury Department to freeze assets and block financial transactions of
terrorists and those supporting them. They also let the United States deny
foreign banks access to U.S. markets if they decline to cooperate with American
authorities. The United Nations also has counterterrorism conventions targeting
finance.
Yet these are essentially law enforcement
protocols. If the United States wanted to surreptitiously disrupt the flow of a
terrorist funding network by, say, interfering with a bank's computers -- is
that a military attack, a law enforcement action, or something else?
"Information warfare" lends itself to soft preemption doctrines.
However, it defies easy categorization as a weapon subject to the laws of war
or criminal law. To the extent that American policymakers should heed the
"rule of law," international law at the moment obscures rather than
illuminates the appropriate role of soft preemption technologies.
By far the best and most enduring example
of soft preemption is economic sanctions. The practice of denying an adversary
vital resources that make it easier to wage war or pursue other hostile actions
goes back to Athens under Pericles in the 5th century B.C. To send the message
that, short of going to war, Athens would punish anyone who challenged her
authority, Pericles banned all trade with a city that had aligned itself with
Sparta. Alas, those sanctions ultimately led to the Peloponnesian Wars.
During the Cold War, the West set up
COCOM -- an international security committee -- to prevent the Soviet Union and
its Warsaw Pact allies, along with China, from getting access to commercial
high-tech "dual-use" technology that could be used in weapons
systems. It enjoyed mixed success. Most recently, a good case could be made
that Western sanctions against Iraq were far more successful than most analysts
had anticipated. Iraq's dilapidated economy and military infrastructure
contributed to its rapid collapse in the Persian Gulf War.
Sanctions can indeed undermine the
ability of an adversary to engage in certain large-scale conflicts. But their
preemptive national security impact has been obscured by their use to punish
nations for misbehavior -- i.e., South Africa and Serbia -- instead of to
undermine their ability to prosecute a war. Moreover, economic sanctions tend
to target and punish entire populations rather than specific regimes.